Performance of molecular classifiers relative to the international prognostic index (IPI) for overall and event-free survival in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL)

Abstract

Abstract Over the past decade, classification systems using high-throughput genetic data have been developed to identify molecular subtypes of DLBCL. Although not a primary goal, these classifiers were also proposed as prognostic factors in their respective publications. To date, however, no study has directly compared these classifiers' ability to predict overall (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) in the same cohort. Herein, we sought to systematically compare predictive performance, benchmarked against the IPI, of several current established molecular classifiers and evaluate if any add significant independent prognostic information beyond the IPI. WES (including paired germline filter) and RNAseq data from newly diagnosed DLBCL patients (N=432; 2018 WHO criteria) in the Mayo Clinic/University of Iowa Lymphoma Molecular Epidemiology Resource (MER) were available for analysis (WES n=112, RNAseq n=40, or both n=280). The number of cases able to be classified (including as unclassified) for each classifier was as follows: IPI (432, 100%), cell-of-origin (COO, by Hans algorithm; 346, 80.1%), refined COO (by gene expression with Dark Zone Signature; 320, 100%), Haematological Malignancy Research Network (HMRN; 349, 89.0%), B-cell state (320, 100%), Lymphoma Ecotype (320, 100%), Lymphoma Microenvironment (LME; 320, 100%), Tumor microenvironment (TME26; 320, 100%), SubLymE (312, 97.5%), LymphGen (358, 91.3%), and DLBclass (223, 58.2%). OS was defined as time from diagnosis to all-cause death while EFS was defined as time from diagnosis to disease progression, initiation of second-line treatment, or all-cause death. We calculated Harrell's c-statistics for each Cox proportional hazards model evaluating the discriminative performance of each classifier in predicting OS/EFS. Using bootstrap validation, we obtained optimism-corrected c-statistics, which we report in the results. We performed likelihood ratio tests (LRT) comparing a univariable Cox model with IPI alone and models including both IPI and a given classifier to assess if a classifier provided independent prognostic information beyond the IPI. All patients were treated with immunochemotherapy (IC) with curative intent, 247 (57%) were male, median age at diagnosis was 65 years (IQR 55-72 years), 390 (96%) were White, 209 (60%) had GCB subtype by Hans, 22 (5.1%) had MYC double-hit by FISH (MYC and BCL2 or BCL6), and 162 (37.9%) had an IPI ≥ 3. The median follow-up was 7.0 years, 167 (39%) experienced an event, and 137 (32%) died. In a univariable Cox model, the c-statistic for IPI predicting OS was 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61-0.70). All other classifiers had c-statistics of ≤0.56. The c-statistic for IPI predicting EFS was 0.64 (95% CI 0.60-0.69), and all other classifiers had c-statistics of ≤0.58. The univariate DLBclass results for OS and EFS were not significantly impacted when restricted to cases with confidence >0.7 (n=136). In Cox models of IPI alone versus IPI plus an individual classifier, the only classifier that provided statistically significant, independent information for OS was TME26 (LRT p=0.02). Adjusting for IPI, patients who were TME26-negative had significantly inferior OS compared to TME26-positive cases (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.07-2.47; p=0.02). For EFS, DLBclass (restricted to confidence >0.7) added significant prognostic information beyond IPI (LRT p=0.02). This finding was largely driven by C5 subtype; relative to C1 subtype and adjusting for IPI, C5 subtype had significantly inferior EFS (HR 5.53, 95% CI 1.81-17.0; p=0.003). In summary, we compared prognostic performance of multiple DLBCL molecular classifiers with respect to OS and EFS in a single real-world, prospective cohort of newly diagnosed, IC-treated DLBCL. Our data supports two key findings: all classifiers had modest performance for prognosis, and none individually outperformed the IPI in predicting OS nor EFS. Second, only TME26 and DLBclass (confidence >0.7) provided additional prognostic information beyond that captured by the IPI for OS and EFS, respectively. This finding suggests that the tumor immune microenvironment and characteristics of C5 DLBCLs (ABC-subtype, CD79B mutations) can potentially offer significant independent information for predicting survival and response to front-line immunochemotherapy. If replicated, these findings could inform risk-adapted treatment approaches and aid in identifying high-risk patients for enrollment in genomically-informed clinical trials.