On urban maladaptation in times of epidemics

Abstract

Abstract Epidemics are long-lasting and transboundary crises that challenge traditional approaches. Given the complexity and interconnectedness of modern cities, interventions can lead to unintended consequences or maladaptation. Although adaptation is central to resilience, crisis management often focuses on short-term response, leaving a gap in understanding urban adaptation and maladaptation. This study examines the impacts of uniform interventions across diverse urban districts to assess this (mal)adaptive process. We use the COVID-19 pandemic in The Hague, Netherlands, as a case study, employing a large-scale agent-based model. We find that without an intervention, the high-contact city centre becomes an infection hotspot due to the transient population it attracts. Conversely, the outer residential district, with fewer amenities, experiences infections primarily among its residents. A uniform lockdown policy significantly reduces infections in the city centre by limiting mobility and social interactions, but inadvertently increases risk in the outer residential district. Using the Urban Adaptation Index (UAI), we demonstrate that these uncontextualised policies can constitute maladaptation, confirming the unintended consequences of ’one-size-fits-all’ approaches. Our results underscore this need, leading us to propose an updated, equity-oriented crisis management framework that accounts for the heterogeneous nature of modern cities.