Neutralizing and binding antibodies are a correlate of risk of COVID-19 in the CoVPN 3008 study in people with HIV

N Nonhlanhla N. Mkhize B Bo Zhang C Caroline Brackett P Peter James Elyanu A Asa Tapley S Sufia Dadabhai J Jiani Hu B Bich T. N. Do D Daniel J. Schuster J Jack Heptinstall S Sheetal Sawant K Kelly Seaton M Marcella Sarzotti-Kelsoe A Aaron Hudson Y Yutong Jin S Sinethemba Bhebhe H Haajira Kaldine P Prudence Kgagudi T Tandile Modise N Nyaradzo M. Mgodi (University of Zimbabwe Clinical Trials Research Centre, Harare) J Jessica Andriesen A April K. Randhawa L Leigh H. Fisher J Jia Jin Kee C Craig A. Magaret J James Peng A Avi Kenny L Lindsay N. Carpp Z Zhe Chen (Gladstone Institutes, San Francisco, CA, USA.) S Siyu Heng M Manuel Villaran A Azwidihwi Takalani B Bert Le Roux E Eduan Wilkinson J Jackline Odhiambo P Parth Shah L Laura Polakowski M Margaret Yacovone T Taraz Samandari Z Zvavahera Chirenje J Joseph Makhema E Ethel Kamuti K Katanekwa Njekwa H Harriet Nuwagaba-Biribonwoha A Allan Baguma S Sharlaa Badal-Faesen W William Brumskine S Soritha Coetzer R Rodney Dawson S Sinéad Delany-Moretlwe A Andreas Henri Diacon S Samantha Fry K Katherine Gill A Anda Madikida Z Zaheer Ahmed Ebrahim Hoosain M Mina C. Hosseinipour M Mubiana Inambao C Craig Innes S Steve Innes D Dishiki Kalonji H Humphrey Mwape P Priya Kassim M Melvin C. Kamanga W William Kilembe F Fatima Laher M Mookho Malahleha V Vongane Louisa Maluleke G Grace Mboya P Philister Adhiambo Madiega K Kirsten McHarry E Essack Mitha Y Yajna Duki P Pamela Mda M Moroesi Moerane T Tumelo Moloantoa S Simpson Nuwamanya S Sharana Mahomed V Vimla Naicker A Anusha Nana A Annet Nanvubya B Barbarah Kawoozo M Maphoshane Nchabeleng W Walter Otieno E Elsje Louise Potgieter D Disebo Potloane Z Zelda Punt J Jamil Said Y Yashna Singh S Sheetal Kassim D Dorothie van der Vendt M Mohammed Siddique Tayob Y Yacoob Vahed D Deo Ogema Wabwire J James G. Kublin (Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle) L Linda-Gail Bekker L Lawrence Corey (Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center) G Glenda E. Gray (Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg) Y Yunda Huang P Philip Kotze N Nigel Garrett J John Hural G Guido Ferrari E Erica Andersen-Nissen D David Montefiori P Penny L. Moore M M. Juliana McElrath (Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center) G Georgia D. Tomaras P Peter B. Gilbert

Abstract

Abstract People with HIV (PWH) are understudied in COVID-19 vaccine trials, leaving knowledge gaps on whether the identified immune correlates of protection also hold in PWH. CoVPN 3008 (NCT05168813) enrolled predominantly PWH and reported lower COVID-19 incidence for a Hybrid vs. Vaccine Group (baseline SARS-CoV-2-positive and one mRNA-1273 dose vs. negative and two doses). Using case-cohort sampling, antibody markers at enrolment (M0) and four weeks post-final vaccination (Peak) are assessed as immune correlates of COVID-19. For the Hybrid Group [n = 287 (195 PWH)], all M0 markers inversely correlate with COVID-19 through 230 days post-Peak, with 50% inhibitory dilution BA.4/5 neutralizing antibody titer (nAb-ID50 BA.4/5) the strongest and only independent correlate (HR per 10-fold increase=0.46, 95% CI 0.28, 0.75; P = 0.002). For the Vaccine Group [n = 115 (86 PWH)], Peak nAb-ID50 BA.4/5 correlates with reduced COVID-19 risk (1.9%, 1.1%, and 0.3% at titers 10, 100, and 1000 AU/ml) through 92, but not 165, days post-Peak. Using multivariable Cox analysis of binding and nAb, nAb titers predict COVID-19 in PWH. Two doses of a 100-µg Ancestral strain mRNA vaccine in baseline-SARS-CoV-2-negative individuals elicit sufficient cross-reacting Omicron antibodies to reduce COVID-19 incidence for 90 days post-Peak, but viral evolution and waning antibodies abrogate this protection thereafter.

Article Details

Volume / Issue Vol. 16, Issue 1
Published October 06, 2025
ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher Nature Portfolio

Journal Info

Nature Communications

Nature Portfolio

ISSN: 2041-1723 Open Access Life Sciences

Authors (108)

N

Nonhlanhla N. Mkhize

B

Bo Zhang

C

Caroline Brackett

P

Peter James Elyanu

A

Asa Tapley

S

Sufia Dadabhai

J

Jiani Hu

B

Bich T. N. Do

D

Daniel J. Schuster

J

Jack Heptinstall

S

Sheetal Sawant

K

Kelly Seaton

M

Marcella Sarzotti-Kelsoe

A

Aaron Hudson

Y

Yutong Jin

S

Sinethemba Bhebhe

H

Haajira Kaldine

P

Prudence Kgagudi

T

Tandile Modise

N

Nyaradzo M. Mgodi

University of Zimbabwe Clinical Trials Research Centre, Harare

J

Jessica Andriesen

A

April K. Randhawa

L

Leigh H. Fisher

J

Jia Jin Kee

C

Craig A. Magaret

J

James Peng

A

Avi Kenny

L

Lindsay N. Carpp

Z

Zhe Chen

Gladstone Institutes, San Francisco, CA, USA.

S

Siyu Heng

M

Manuel Villaran

A

Azwidihwi Takalani

B

Bert Le Roux

E

Eduan Wilkinson

J

Jackline Odhiambo

P

Parth Shah

L

Laura Polakowski

M

Margaret Yacovone

T

Taraz Samandari

Z

Zvavahera Chirenje

J

Joseph Makhema

E

Ethel Kamuti

K

Katanekwa Njekwa

H

Harriet Nuwagaba-Biribonwoha

A

Allan Baguma

S

Sharlaa Badal-Faesen

W

William Brumskine

S

Soritha Coetzer

R

Rodney Dawson

S

Sinéad Delany-Moretlwe

A

Andreas Henri Diacon

S

Samantha Fry

K

Katherine Gill

A

Anda Madikida

Z

Zaheer Ahmed Ebrahim Hoosain

M

Mina C. Hosseinipour

M

Mubiana Inambao

C

Craig Innes

S

Steve Innes

D

Dishiki Kalonji

H

Humphrey Mwape

P

Priya Kassim

M

Melvin C. Kamanga

W

William Kilembe

F

Fatima Laher

M

Mookho Malahleha

V

Vongane Louisa Maluleke

G

Grace Mboya

P

Philister Adhiambo Madiega

K

Kirsten McHarry

E

Essack Mitha

Y

Yajna Duki

P

Pamela Mda

M

Moroesi Moerane

T

Tumelo Moloantoa

S

Simpson Nuwamanya

S

Sharana Mahomed

V

Vimla Naicker

A

Anusha Nana

A

Annet Nanvubya

B

Barbarah Kawoozo

M

Maphoshane Nchabeleng

W

Walter Otieno

E

Elsje Louise Potgieter

D

Disebo Potloane

Z

Zelda Punt

J

Jamil Said

Y

Yashna Singh

S

Sheetal Kassim

D

Dorothie van der Vendt

M

Mohammed Siddique Tayob

Y

Yacoob Vahed

D

Deo Ogema Wabwire

J

James G. Kublin

Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle

L

Linda-Gail Bekker

L

Lawrence Corey

Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center

G

Glenda E. Gray

Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg

Y

Yunda Huang

P

Philip Kotze

N

Nigel Garrett

J

John Hural

G

Guido Ferrari

E

Erica Andersen-Nissen

D

David Montefiori

P

Penny L. Moore

M

M. Juliana McElrath

Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center

G

Georgia D. Tomaras

P

Peter B. Gilbert