Network vulnerability of cattle movement in Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2013 to 2022

Abstract

The analysis of networks from cattle movements is an important approach to investigate areas and premises where disease outbreaks can occur and be contained. Vulnerability analysis allows a more profound understanding of the network by combining network measures with the strategic removal of nodes, helping to identify more vulnerable areas and the best metrics to support disease control planning. Therewith, the aim of this study was to analyze the network vulnerability of cattle movements from 2013 to 2022, in Minas Gerais, Brazil and to identify the spatial spreaders into the network to improve infectious disease control programs by targeted risk-based surveillance and intervention. The vulnerability was calculated considering the graphs diameter and the spatial spreaders with a threshold distance of 300 km, for incoming (IN) and outgoing (OUT) movements. Additionally, a risk-based analysis was performed in the more vulnerable region. The results showed Triângulo Mineiro/ Alto Paranaíba with higher vulnerability and many IN spatial spreaders, as well as Vale do Mucurí region with many OUT spatial spreaders. The risk-based analysis revealed betweenness and out degree as the most effective measures to be considered for intervention. Therefore, the vulnerability analysis and the spatial spreader were observed as great tools for risk-based interventions and surveillance. Furthermore, Triângulo Mineiro/ Alto Paranaíba and Vale do Mucuri regions were important regions, considering restriction of animal infectious disease spread in Minas Gerais, Brazil.