National trends in mortality of pancreatic cancer in adults aged 70 and older across 204 nations: A global burden of disease analysis (1990–2021).

Abstract

e16420 Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) typically follows an indolent course and is often diagnosed at an advanced stage, contributing to its high mortality rate, particularly among older adults. Its aggressive nature makes it a significant global health burden, causing substantial mortality across nations. This analysis investigates national mortality trends in adults aged 70 years and older from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Methods: We utilized data from the GBD-Study 2021 to report the number of cases and age-standardized rates (per 100,000 population) of PC. To assess mortality trends from 1990 to 2021, we calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) along with corresponding 95%confidence intervals (CI), providing a robust evaluation of temporal patterns. Results: Over the past three decades, deaths attributable to PC have shown a significant increase globally. In 1990, the United States of America (USA) reported the highest number of PC-related deaths, followed by China and Japan. By 2021, however, China surpassed the USA, becoming the leading contributor to PC mortality, with Japan maintaining its position as the third highest.In 2021, the United Arab Emirates reported the highest mortality rate (148.15), which was more than double its 1990 rate (70.71). The Principality of Monaco (140.87) and Uruguay (129.39) held the second and third highest mortality rates, respectively. The lowest mortality rates were recorded in Mozambique (8.18), Malawi (8.98), and Sao Tome and Principe (9.01).Countries with the largest increases in the EAPC included Turkmenistan (EAPC: 15.16, 95% CI: 10.92, 21.02), Republic of Cabo Verde (EAPC: 13.60, 95% CI: 8.56, 19.48), and Mongolia (EAPC: 4.80, 95% CI: 3.11, 7.26). In contrast, the greatest declines were observed in the Republic of San Marino (EAPC: -0.32, 95% CI: -0.52, -0.07), Guam (EAPC: -0.27, 95% CI: -0.41, -0.13), and Greenland (EAPC: -0.24, 95% CI: -0.44, 0.007). Conclusions: Globally, mortality rates associated with PC among individuals aged 70 and older increased from 1990 to 2021, with particularly notable rises in Turkmenistan, Republic of Cabo Verde, and Mongolia. These findings underscore the critical need for enhanced prevention strategies, improved management, and research to address underlying disparities. Mortality percent change. Metric Region 1990 2021 EAPC with 95% CI (1990-2021) Highest mortality percent change Turkmenistan 1.19 19.34 15.16 (10.92, 21.02) Republic of Cabo Verde 6.47 94.55 13.60 (8.56, 19.48) Mongolia 10.21 59.24 4.80 (3.11, 7.26) Lowest mortality percent change Republic of San Marino 89.48 60.47 -0.32 (-0.52, -0.07) Guam 32.46 23.51 -0.27 (-0.41, -0.13) Greenland 169.52 127.96 -0.24 (-0.44, 0.007)