Multidimensional landscape persistence enhances the structural resilience of ecological networks in high-density urban agglomerations: a case study of the GBA

Abstract

Abstract In high-density urban agglomerations, the conflict between rapid land expansion and ecological integrity poses a critical threat to regional sustainability. Existing ecological network planning mostly focuses on static connectivity based on single-temporal data, overlooking the stability of landscape units over long time series and their structural robustness against future uncertainties. To address this, taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) (2000–2020) as a case study, this paper proposes an optimization framework integrating "MSP and Conflict Risk Rectification" (MSP-FT). First, Structural Persistence (SPI) and Functional Persistence (FPI) were quantified using long-time-series data. Second, a "Dual-threshold integration" strategy was implemented: a dual-threshold screening mechanism integrating “connectivity skeletons” and "high-quality cores" was adopted for source identification, and a spatiotemporal conflict risk penalty mechanism was introduced for resistance surface reconstruction. Finally, network resilience and effectiveness were evaluated by combining complex network theory and a "Topography-based Conservation Baseline (TCB)" benchmark. The results showed that: (1) The persistence strategy optimized network structure; compared with the traditional Static Ecological Network (SEN), the cumulative resistance cost of Persistence Ecological Networks (PENs) decreased by 30%, and the α index (closure) increased by 14.3%, forming a complex “cyclic redundancy” structure. (2) Robustness simulations confirmed that PENs maintained higher connectivity efficiency under intentional attacks due to their multi-center skeleton. (3) Crucially, overlay analysis against the TCB revealed a significant “Spatial Mismatch”: the current topography-dependent protection paradigm fails to cover approximately 54% of low-altitude source gaps and 88% of cross-regional corridor gaps. Accordingly, a hierarchical Redline-extension strategy was proposed: implementing "Remediation of Baseline Integrity" for source gaps and "Functional Connectivity Control" for corridor gaps. This study provides a scientific basis for constructing more adaptive ecological security patterns in high-density urban agglomerations.