Most long-lived contrails form within cirrus clouds with uncertain climate impact

Abstract

Abstract Contrail-cirrus is considered the most important component of aviation-induced climate impact. However, a reliable assessment requires better understanding of their radiative effects. Analysis of seven years of humidity observations by instrumented passenger aircraft shows that conditions promoting long-lived contrails are fulfilled most often in regions already covered by subvisible or visible cirrus: ~90% over the Northern midlatitudes and almost 100% in the Southeast Asian subtropics, approximately equally distributed among visible and subvisible cirrus clouds. A conceptual analysis shows that subvisible cirrus and clear-sky cover ~10% of the cruise altitude over Northern midlatitudes ( < 2% in the subtropics) and contrails within these regions are expected to cause additional warming. However, most contrails in the thicker, visible cirrus, only slightly enhance the cirrus warming effect or possibly reverse it to cooling. Our results suggest that potential flight rerouting concepts for contrail avoidance need to consider cirrus cloud coverage in addition to ice-supersaturation.