Molecular stratification of relapse risk post-allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in myeloid neoplasms with non-adverse risk cytogenetics

Abstract

Abstract Background: Disease relapse is a major cause of mortality post allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantion (alloHCT) in patients with myeloid neoplasms (MN). Cytogenetic risk classification is a key prognostic factor in predicting relapse post-transplant. Next generation sequencing (NGS) offers added prognostic insight by identifying relapse-associated mutations. We assessed the impact of mutation type and burden on post-alloHCT relapse risk and relapse-free survival (RFS) in MN patients with non-adverse-risk cytogenetics. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent alloHCT at Mayo Clinic Rochester between 01/01/2018 - 10/01/2023. Eligible patients had MN with non-adverse-risk cytogenetics [Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with non-adverse-risk cytogenetics per ELN 2022, myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) with non-high/very high-risk cytogenetics per IPSS-R criteria, and myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) (excluding myelofibrosis), chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML), or MDS/MPN overlap with non-complex and non-monosomal karyotypes]. The primary endpoint was 3-year cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) post-alloHCT, analyzed via competing risk models. RFS was estimated via Kaplan-Meier method. Prognostic mutations were identified using univariate (UVA) and multivariate (MVA) Cox models. A decision tree was used to define mutation-based relapse risk groups. Results: Of 585 patients, 215 (37%) met inclusion criteria; 133 (62%) were male. Median age at diagnosis was 61 years (IQR 53-65.5). Diagnoses included AML (125, 58.1%), MDS (55, 25.6%), CMML (17, 7.9%), MDS/MPN (11, 5.1%), and MPN (7, 3.3%). Median follow-up post-alloHCT was 3.2 years (IQR 1.9-5.2). Donor sources were mostly matched unrelated donors (120; 55.8%), followed by matched related donors (72; 33.5%), haploidentical donors (15; 7%), mismatched unrelated donors (6; 2.8%), and cord blood transplants (2; 0.9%). Most patients reduced intensity/non-myeloablative conditioning (144, 67%), while others received myeloablative (71, 33%). Mutation frequencies were as follows: ASXL1 58 (27.0%), RUNX1 45 (20.9%), FLT3 41 (19.1%), SRSF2 41 (19.1%), DNMT3A 39 (18.1%), STAG2 22 (10.2%), SF3B1 18 (8.4%),BCOR 18 (8.4%), WT1 16 (7.4%), U2AF1 13 (6.0%), ZRSR2 10 (4.7%), TP53 6 (2.8%), EZH2 3 (1.4%). In UVA, mutations in FLT3 (HR 2.15, p=0.018), SF3B1 (SF3B1 HR 3.08, p=0.002), PTPN11(HR 2.93, p=0.032), and WT1 (HR 2.29, p=0.069) were associated with increased risk of 3-year CIR. However, only FLT3 (HR 1.98, p=0.042) and SF3B1 (HR 4.0, p<0.001) retained significance in MVA. SF3B1 correlated with inferior 3-year RFS in UVA (HR 1.99, p=0.034) but not in MVA. Mutations in ASXL1, BCOR, EZH2, RUNX1, SRSF2, STAG2, ZRSR2, U2AF1, and TP53 had no significant impact on CIR or RFS. Harboring ≥2 or ≥3 mutations did not impact CIR or RFS. A decision tree model based on SF3B1, FLT3, DNMT3A, and WT1 mutations stratified patients into 3 risk groups. The high-risk group (n=32; 15%) had 50% 3-year relapse incidence (RI) and included patients with SF3B1 mutations or SF3B1-wildtype (WT) with concurrent FLT3 and DNMT3A mutations. The intermediate-risk group (n=36; 17%) included SF3B1-WT patients with either FLT3 mutations and DNMT3A WT (21% RI), or SF3B-1-WT and FLT3-WT patients with WT1 mutations (33% RI). The low-risk group (n=147; 67%) lacked all 4 mutations and had the lowest 3-year RI of 14%. The 3-year CIR significantly differed across these 3 risk groups (51.9%, 27.3%, and 15.8% in high, intermediate, and low-risk groups respectively; p<0.001). The 3-year RFS was significantly inferior in the high-risk group (35.55%, p=0.001), but similar among intermediate and low-risk groups (67.11% and 63.4%, respectively). Conclusion: In non-adverse risk cytogenetic MN, SF3B1 and FLT3 mutations predicted relapse post-alloHCT. Notably, mutations that were traditionally associated with adverse-risk AML per ELN 2022 (e.g, ASXL1, TP53) were not associated with relapse in this cohort. The discrepancy may reflect exclusion of patients with high-risk cytogenetics, as the prognostic impact of these mutations may depend on co-cytogenetic anomalies. In non-adverse-risk cytogenetics MN, we identified 3 groups of patients based on the presence or absence of SF3B1, FLT3, DNMT3A, and WT1 mutations. Those with mutated SF3B1 or concurrent FLT3/DNMT3A mutations experienced the highest risk of relapse post-alloHCT, translating into inferior RFS. Our findings need to be verified in a larger data registry.