Modelling transmission of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in camel populations and the potential impact of animal vaccination

Abstract

Abstract Outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in humans are driven by recurring zoonotic spillover from camels, leading to demand for camel vaccination. With two vaccine candidates shown to reduce infectiousness, there is a need to better understand transmission of MERS-CoV in camels and assess the potential impact of vaccination. To help address this, we used age-stratified seroprevalence data and a combination of modelling methodologies to estimate key epidemiological quantities including MERS-CoV transmissibility in camels and to estimate vaccine impact on infection incidence. Transmissibility was higher in West Asia ( R 0 interquartile range 7-14) compared to Africa (3-5) and South Asia (2-3), highlighting the need for setting-specific vaccination strategies. Modelling suggested that even if the vaccine only reduced infectiousness rather than susceptibility to infection, vaccinating calves could achieve large reductions in incidence in moderate and high transmission settings, and interrupt transmission in low transmission settings, provided coverage was high (70-90%).