Modeling and simulation of railway safety management with public supervision and dynamic incentives: A four-party evolutionary game and system dynamics approach

Abstract

Railway accidents pose a significant threat to the industry, necessitating enhanced research into railway transportation safety. This study integrated a public oversight framework into the existing safety governance structure of railway transport operators, utilizing a four-party evolutionary game model and system dynamics for enhancement. Simulations conducted with Vensim software demonstrate that increased public supervision increases safety operation rates and improves the safety-related productivity of auxiliary enterprises. However, uncertainties in the evolutionary strategy process were identified. To address equilibrium fluctuations, a dynamic reward-punishment mechanism was developed. The optimized system achieved a safety operation rate of 99.7%, enhanced the safety-related productivity of the auxiliary enterprises to 93.2%, and increased the public supervision rate to 87.2%. These findings indicate that effective public participation and dynamic incentives can significantly improve safety management and prevent losses in railway sectors, offering valuable theoretical and practical insights for global railway enterprises.