Modeling and simulation analysis of multi-scenario air conditioning cluster response for intelligent load management in distribution networks

Abstract

Abstract This paper proposes a dynamic multi-scenario modeling approach for air conditioning (AC) cluster loads, integrating occupant behavior, spatiotemporal activity distributions, and meteorological factors. A refined unregulated load baseline is established to better isolate and evaluate the effects of AC usage on overall distribution network loads. Simulation results under various scenarios indicate that the proposed framework accurately captures cluster-level load responses, effectively reflecting the interplay among occupant activities, temperature variations, and regional characteristics. The outcomes demonstrate the model’s potential to enhance AC load forecasting and support intelligent demand-side management in smart grids, offering both theoretical and practical insights for future load regulation strategies.