Manual federated simulation for multiple sclerosis integrating XGBoost algorithm with SHAP explanation

Abstract

Abstract Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disorder of the central nervous system, underscoring the importance of early and accurate diagnosis. In this study investigates the predictive modelling of MS progression in patients with Clinically Isolated Syndrome (CIS), privacy-preserving for a federated and explainable Machine Learning (ML) framework. To address missing data while preserving inter-feature dependencies, Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) with iterative imputers was employed. Classification was performed using the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. Model interpretability was developed through Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, specifically Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). To ensure data confidentiality and simulate decentralized clinical environments, an in silico federated learning framework was applied. Experimental results demonstrated strong predictive performance, achieving 96.7% accuracy and 99% ROC–AUC during training, 92.5% accuracy in validation, and 81.8% accuracy with an AUC of 88% on the test set. For the Federated Learning (FL) simulation, the model maintained competitive performance, yielding an accuracy of 76.3% and an AUC of 83.9%. The proposed approach supports early diagnosis, enhances clinical trust through interpretability, and promotes secure data collaboration, thereby contributing to more informed and transparent clinical decision-making and improved patient care.