Machine learning to identify environmental drivers of phytoplankton blooms in the Southern Baltic Sea

Abstract

Abstract Phytoplankton blooms exhibit varying patterns in timing and number of peaks within ecosystems. These differences in blooming patterns are partly explained by phytoplankton:nutrient interactions and external factors such as temperature, salinity and light availability. Understanding these interactions and drivers is essential for effective bloom management and modelling as driving factors potentially differ or are shared across ecosystems on regional scales. Here, we used a 22-year data set (19 years training and 3 years validation data) containing chlorophyll, nutrients (dissolved and total), and external drivers (temperature, salinity, light) of the southern Baltic Sea coast, a European brackish shelf sea, which constituted six different phytoplankton blooming patterns. We employed generalized additive mixed models to characterize similar blooming patterns and trained an artificial neural network within the Universal Differential Equation framework to learn a differential equation representation of these pattern. Applying Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics uncovered algebraic relationships in phytoplankton:nutrient:external driver interactions. Nutrients availability was driving factor for blooms in enclosed coastal waters; nutrients and temperature in more open regions. We found evidence of hydrodynamical export of phytoplankton, natural mortality or external grazing not explicitly measured in the data. This data-driven workflow allows new insight into driver-differences in region specific blooming dynamics.