Long-term projections of multiple myeloma mortality in the United States(2024-2040).: A time-series analysis stratified by sex, race, and geography

Abstract

Abstract Background:Multiple Myeloma remains as a hematologic malignancy with significant mortality burden and persistent demographic disparities in outcomes. Robust forecasting of mortality trends is crucial for proper resource allocation. This study utilizes comprehensive national data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research(CDC WONDER) to forecast Multiple Myeloma mortality through 2040. Methods: Age adjusted mortality rates(AAMR) for Multiple Myeloma between 1999 to 2023 were retrieved from CDC WONDER using ICD 10 code C90.0.An ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model,using Python 3,was utilized to forecast trends of the subsequent 17 years. Sub group analysis was done for sex, race(White/Black) and geography(metropolitan/non-metropolitan). Results:Our ARIMA modeling forecasts a continued decline in Multiple Myeloma AAMR from 4.07 in 2024 to 2.93 by 2040 (28.0% reduction). Gender disparities narrowed substantially, with males experiencing a more rapid decline (4.87 to 1.53; -68.6%) compared to females (3.31 to 2.29; -30.8%), reducing the gender gap from 1.56 to 0.76 points.Similar results were seen in Racial disparities, with Black population AAMR declining from 7.99 to 5.82 (-27.2%) and White populations AAMR decreasing from 3.83 to 2.85 (-25.6%), narrowing the racial gap (4.16 in 2024 to 2.97 points in 2040).Geographic analysis revealed persistent disparities, as metro areas declined from 4.24 to 3.36 (-20.8%) while non-metro areas showed slower reduction (4.43 to 3.61; -18.5%), slightly widening the gap from 0.19 to 0.25 points by 2037. Conclusion:Multiple Myeloma mortality rates are projected to decline through 2040, with substantial narrowing of gender and racial disparities. However, persistent geographic inequalities underscore the need for targeted interventions for such high risk groups.