Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe

Abstract

Abstract Coping with prolonged periods of low availability of wind and solar power, also referred to as variable renewable energy droughts or “Dunkelflaute”, emerges as a key challenge for realizing decarbonized energy systems based on renewable energy. Here we investigate the role of long-duration electricity storage and geographical balancing through transmission in dealing with such events in Europe, combining a time series analysis of renewable availability with power sector modeling of 35 historical weather years. We find that extreme droughts define long-duration storage operation and investment. Assuming policy-relevant interconnection, the least-cost system in our model capable of coping with the most extreme event requires 351 terawatt hours long-duration storage capacity, corresponding to 7% of yearly European electricity demand. While nuclear power can partially reduce storage needs, the storage-mitigating effect of fossil backup plants in combination with carbon removal is limited. Policymakers and system planners should prepare for a rapid expansion of long-duration storage to safeguard the renewable energy transition in Europe.