Large role of anthropogenic climate change in driving smoke concentrations across the western United States from 1992 to 2020

Abstract

Wildfire activity has increased dramatically in the western United States over the last three decades, having a significant impact on air quality and human health. However, quantifying the drivers of trends in wildfires and subsequent smoke concentrations is challenging, as both natural variability (NV) and anthropogenic climate change (ACC) play important roles. Here, we devise an approach involving observed meteorology and vegetation and a range of models to determine the relative roles of ACC and NV in driving burned area across the western United States. We also examine the influence of ACC on smoke concentrations. We estimate that ACC accounts for 33 to 82% of observed total burned area, depending on the ecoregion, yielding 65% of total fire emissions on average across the western United States from 1992 to 2020. In all ecoregions except Mediterranean California, ACC contributes to a greater percentage of burned area in lightning-ignited wildfires than in human-ignited wildfires. On average, ACC contributes 49% to smoke PM 2.5 concentrations in the western United States from 1997 to 2020, and explains 58% of the increasing trend in smoke PM 2.5 from 2010 to 2020. Northern California and areas in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho experience the greatest smoke concentrations attributable to ACC, averaging 40 to 66% of total PM 2.5 over 2010–2020. Our work highlights the significant role of ACC in degrading air quality in the western United States and identifies those regions most vulnerable to wildfire smoke and thus adverse health impacts.