Land use change and ecological sensitivity in the Qingdao West Coast new area: A 30-year analysis and future scenario simulation

Abstract

This study aims to reveal the long-term ecological evolution in the Qingdao West Coast New Area (QWCNA) and predict future trends to support its sustainable development. Firstly, it employed GIS-based land use dynamic indices and transfer matrix analyses to assess land use changes from 1990–2020. Secondly, this study assessed ecological sensitivity (1990–2020) using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) weighted 7-factor system covering the natural environment, land cover, and accessibility. Thirdly, the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model predicted 2030 land use under Natural Development (ND), Urban Development (UD), and Ecological Protection (EP) scenarios, which were subsequently used to evaluate future ecological sensitivity patterns. The main results indicate that a drastic land use transformation occurred between 1990 and 2020, marked by a significant expansion of construction land and forestland. This expansion primarily displaced cultivated land, grassland, water bodies, and unused land, driven by rapid urbanization. Furthermore, spatially distinct ecological sensitivity patterns evolved; lower sensitivity areas increased alongside urban expansion, while higher sensitivity zones (High and Extremely High), concentrated around the Xiaozhu, Dazhu, and Cangma–Tiejue Mts, expanded notably. The expansion of these higher sensitivity zones suggests potential environmental improvement attributed to enhanced conservation efforts. Future simulations show that the EP scenario best aligns with sustainability goals, maximizing the extent of High and Extremely High sensitivity areas by 2030 compared to the ND and UD scenarios.