Integrating circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and <i>TP53</i> alteration variant allele frequency (VAF) to predict outcomes in advanced urothelial carcinoma (aUC) treated with enfortumab vedotin (EV).

Abstract

815 Background: EV, alone or combined with pembrolizumab (EVP), is a standard of care for patients (pts) with aUC. Markers predictive of early or durable treatment response in aUC remain limited. Here, we investigate serial ctDNA monitoring and TP53 VAF as complementary predictors of early EV/EVP response. Methods: This single-institution IRB-approved study included pts with aUC treated with EV/EVP between 1/2021 and 9/2025. Pt demographics, clinicopathologic features, serial Signatera ctDNA results, and somatic tissue next-generation sequencing (NGS) data were abstracted from medical records. Primary refractory disease (PRD) was defined as progressive disease on first restaging scan or earlier clinical progression resulting in death from disease. PRD and progression-free survival (PFS) were assessed using Fisher’s exact and log-rank tests. Results: Out of 158 pts, 67 pts were included in study cohort. Median follow-up was 13.2 months, with 52% of pts alive at time of data cutoff. Clinical characteristics at EV start include median age 69 years (range 41-99), 78% male, 91% white, 15% variant-predominant histologic subtype, 15% upper tract disease, 43% with visceral metastasis (24 lung, 7 liver), 66% frontline treatment (42 EVP, 2 EV), and 34% refractory setting (6 EVP, 17 EV). At first restaging scan, observed response rate was 50%; 23% had PRD. TP53 alterations on NGS were identified in 39 pts (58%); TP53 VAF was available for 36 pts (92%), with median VAF 50.7% (range 8-82%). While TP53 mutation presence did not significantly associate with PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 0.68-2.42; log-rank p = 0.45), pts with TP53 VAF ≥ 50% had significantly longer PFS compared with TP53 VAF &lt; 50% (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.18-1.04; log-rank p = 0.03). PRD was more commonly observed with TP53 VAF &lt; 50% than with TP53 VAF ≥ 50% (odds ratio [OR] 0.06, 95% CI 0.01-0.48, p = 0.01). 23 pts (21 EVP, 2 EV) had ≥ 2 serial ctDNA draws ≤ 120 days apart, including baseline draw within 2 months of EV start. Median time between 1 st and 2 nd ctDNA draws was 43 days. 70% (16 pts) had ≥ 90% ctDNA decline and 17% (4 pts) had ctDNA rise. The 2 pts with PRD exhibited ctDNA rise, whereas no pts with ctDNA decline had PRD (p = 0.04). 10 of these pts (43%) had TP53 mutations with available VAF. Of those 5 pts with TP53 VAF ≥ 50%, 3 had ctDNA clearance over 90%, 1 had 0-90% ctDNA clearance, and 1 had ctDNA rise. Of those 5 pts with TP53 VAF &lt; 50%, 2 had ctDNA clearance over 90%, 1 had 0-90% ctDNA clearance, and 2 had ctDNA rise. Conclusions: Integrated serial ctDNA monitoring and tumor TP53 VAF may capture early treatment sensitivity to EV/EVP. Limitations include retrospective analysis, small sample size/power, combined EV/EVP cohort, and lack of centralized imaging review. Further validation in large, prospective cohorts is warranted.