Integrated dry hole, seismic, and structural analysis improves hydrocarbon exploration in the Egyptian Northern Red Sea basin

Abstract

Abstract This study evaluates the hydrocarbon potential of Egypt’s Northern Red Sea through an integrated workflow combining geochemical, petrophysical, and seismic datasets. Dry Hole Analysis (DHA) was conducted on 14 wells, with detailed investigation of three representative failures (RSOX-94-1, QUSEIR_B_1X, and MIKAWA-1) to assess the relationship between structural trapping and petroleum system effectiveness. Geochemical results indicate variable source rock potential, with Total Organic Carbon (TOC) values ranging from 0.3% to 1.2%, corresponding to poor-to-fair source quality. These values are interpreted as residual organic richness due to the advanced thermal maturity of the Lower Miocene succession. Optical kerogen analysis reveals a predominance of woody kerogen (80–90%) with minor herbaceous components, indicating a mainly gas-prone petroleum system with limited localized oil potential. Thermal maturity data show a complex burial history, with Tmax values suggesting immature to early mature conditions at shallower depths (~ 2100 m), whereas vitrinite reflectance (Ro) values between 2.04% and 3.49% indicate overmature conditions within deeper Lower Miocene intervals. Petrophysical evaluation identifies reservoir intervals within the Belayim, Kareem, and Rudeis formations, characterized by average porosities of 6–9%, although reservoir continuity is constrained by facies variability and syn-rift structural compartmentalization. Seismic interpretation reveals widespread fault-controlled traps analogous to productive rift basins, but quantitative failure analysis indicates that trap integrity and hydrocarbon charge represent the principal exploration risks. RSOX-94-1 failed primarily due to fault-related seal breach and hydrocarbon leakage, whereas MIKAWA-1 was limited by insufficient hydrocarbon charge despite the presence of a valid structural trap. The integration of geochemical screening, reservoir characterization, and structural risk assessment provides a refined framework for frontier exploration in the Northern Red Sea and highlights key geological factors controlling exploration success in this underexplored rift basin.