Incorporating vertical transmission into mechanistic modeling of West Nile virus for optimized control in Germany

Abstract

Abstract West Nile virus is an arbovirus transmitted by infected Culex mosquitoes to birds, horses, and humans. Since its first recorded case in Germany in 2018, WNV has been endemic in several parts of Germany. Globalization, ecosystem modification and climate change have been identified as significant drivers of the arbovirus spread. However, vertical transmission of pathogens from adult female to their progeny might alter the transmission dynamics. In this study, we designed a process-based epidemic model incorporating climatic variables and epidemiological parameters that replicated mosquito populations and pathogen transmission between mosquito vectors and hosts, explicitly accounting for the role of vertical transmission. In addition, we evaluated the efficiency of biological, chemical, and mechanical strategies for mosquito population control. Our findings revealed that while vertical transmission marginally influenced West Nile virus transmission, the impact was more pronounced in endemic regions, signaling a relationship between vertical transmission and West Nile virus persistence. Among control methods implemented, the biological control method performed optimally and emerged as the preferred method over mechanical and chemical methods, respectively. This model provides an understanding on the impact of vertical transmission in mosquito-borne disease epidemiology and provides insights into the efficiency of mosquito control strategies which would support optimized implementation of mosquito management programs.