Impact of pre-treatment antibiotic exposure on immunotherapy outcomes in gastrointestinal malignancies: A multicenter propensity-matched real-world cohort study.

Abstract

e15598 Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have transformed the treatment landscape of gastrointestinal (GI) malignancies. Emerging evidence suggests that gut microbiome composition plays a critical role in modulating the efficacy of immunotherapy. Antibiotics, by disrupting intestinal microbial diversity, may attenuate antitumor immune responses and compromise ICI outcomes. We evaluated time-dependent clinical outcomes associated with antibiotic exposure using real-world data. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a large federated real-world database (2015-2025). Adults (18–89 years) with gastrointestinal or hepatobiliary malignancies (including colorectal, gastric, esophageal, and liver cancers) treated with ICI, receiving systemic antibiotics, were compared with matched controls without antibiotic exposure. Cohorts were balanced using 1:1 Propensity score matching for demographics, comorbidities, and treatment variables. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 30 days of ICI initiation; the secondary outcomes were hospitalization secondary to infectious and organ-related complications, overall survival at 1 and 3 years. Pre-specified subgroup analyses were performed in older adults ( > / = 65 years). Effect estimates were reported as risk ratios( RR), hazard ratios (HR), and absolute risk differences. Survival was analyzed using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Within 30 days, antibiotic exposure was associated with significantly increased risks of Clostridioides difficile infection (RR 2.39), pneumonia (RR 2.93), acute kidney injury (RR 1.40), acute respiratory failure (RR 2.11), and neutropenia (RR 1.18) (all p < 0.05). Absolute risk differences translated to a number needed to harm (NNH) of approximately 38 for pneumonia, 143 for acute kidney injury, and ~140 for C. difficile infection. One-month mortality was modestly higher in the antibiotic group (5.4% vs 4.5%; HR 1.22; p = 0.014). However, no significant differences in mortality were observed at 6 months, 1 year, or 3 years, and survival curves converged over time. In the subgroup analysis of adults ≥65 years, early adverse event patterns were preserved, while long-term mortality remained unchanged. One-year hospital admission rates did not differ significantly between groups. Conclusions: Antibiotic exposure is associated with substantial early infectious and organ-related harm and a small increase in short-term mortality, without improvement in long-term survival, including among older adults. These findings highlight a critical opportunity for risk-adapted antibiotic stewardship and careful reassessment of empiric antibiotic use. Key words: ICI- Immune checkpoint inhibitors, RR- Risk ratio, HR- Hazard Ratio, NNH- Number Needed to Harm.