Impact of guideline-discordant care for muscle-invasive bladder cancer on preventable survival losses: A national counterfactual analysis of 55,873 patients.

Abstract

e16586 Background: Guideline-discordant care disproportionately affects racial minorities, uninsured, and underinsured patients, yet prior studies lack quantification of absolute survival time lost. We evaluated equity-adjusted survival penalties from non-adherence to guideline-concordant therapy in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). Methods: From the National Cancer Database, we identified patients with non metastatic muscle invasive bladder cancer (cT2 to T4a, N0 or N1, M0). Overall survival was defined from diagnosis to death or last contact. Guideline-concordant therapy was defined as radical cystectomy (± perioperative systemic therapy) or trimodality therapy (definitive bladder radiotherapy with chemotherapy); all other patterns were classified as discordant. Of 55,873 eligible patients, 28,025 received concordant therapy (27,401 cystectomy; 524 trimodality therapy) and 27,848 received discordant careInverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to balance demographic, socioeconomic, facility, tumor, and temporal covariates. We analyzed survival using weighted Kaplan-Meier and Cox models censored at 36 and 60 months. Equity-adjusted survival penalties were calculated as the difference between observed survival and counterfactual survival predicted from concordant-only models. Restricted mean survival time losses were extrapolated to years lost per 1,000 patients. Results: Guideline concordance was associated with significantly improved survival (36-month HR 0.64; 60-month HR 0.68; both p < 0.01). Among concordant modalities, radical cystectomy conferred an early survival advantage over trimodality therapy at 36 months (HR 0.23; p < 0.05) which dissipated by 60 months (HR 0.53; p > 0.05). Survival penalties were most severe for vulnerable populations. At 36 months, uninsured patients incurred a 0.90-month survival penalty (75.0 life-years lost per 1,000 patients). By 60 months, penalties widened: uninsured patients lost 1.94 months (161.7 life-years/1,000), Filipino patients lost 1.53 months (127.0/1,000), Medicaid beneficiaries lost 0.97 months (80.8/1,000), and patients at community cancer programs lost 0.21 months (54.1/1,000). Conclusions: In this national cohort of 55,873 patients, guideline concordance reduced the propensity-weighted risk of death by 32% to 36% at 3 and 5 years. However, non-adherence results in substantial absolute survival losses for marginalized groups. By quantifying these "survival penalties," we demonstrate that targeting the factors underlying discordance offers a direct opportunity to reduce inequities and achieve measurable population-level survival gains in MIBC.