Impact of climate on water status, growth, yield, and phenology of coffee (Coffea arabica) plants in the central region of the state of Veracruz, Mexico

Abstract

Coffee (Coffea arabica) is one of the most widely traded and most consumed agro-products worldwide. Its production is concentrated in tropical regions, and its consumption, in northern countries. Climate variability influences coffee yield and quality, and the distribution of wet and dry periods is closely related to its phenological phases. Recently, the vulnerability of coffee producing regions to changes in climate patterns has been demonstrated. Therefore, this study evaluated the effect of climatic variables on the water status, vegetative growth, yield, and phenology of coffee plants. The research was carried out in a coffee agroecosystem (Garnica variety) located in the central region of the state of Veracruz, Mexico (19.51998∘ N and 96.94339∘ W; 1320 masl). For three years, the phenology of coffee plants was monitored; plant growth (height, number of leaves) and cherry yield were measured each month during three productive periods. Microclimatic variables (temperature, precipitation, relative air humidity, solar radiation, and wind direction) and water-balance variables (infiltration, rainfall interception, transpiration, soil water storage, crop evapotranspiration [ETo], and reference evapotranspiration [ETc]) were also monitored. The water status of the plants was evaluated based on their water demand, determined as the ETc/ETo ratio. The relationship of microclimatic variables with water status, plant growth, and plant yield was measured by performing correlation statistical tests (Pearson; α=0.05), principal component analyses (PCA), and simple and multiple linear regressions. The results show that the highest water consumption occurred during the flowering (ETc/ETo=1.12), and grain ripening (ETc/ETo=1.15) phenological phases, while the lowest value (ETc/ETo=0.62), indicative of water deficit, was observed at harvest for the period 2018–2019. Precipitation (P) and rainfall infiltration (I) are the variables with the greatest influence on vegetative growth (r2>0.70). A relationship was observed between yield and water and microclimatic variables. However, simple and multiple linear regressions, including PCA, explain less than 45% (p < 0.05) of the variability of yield data. This variability is mainly described by water conditions related to soil water storage (S) and thermal conditions, particularly the minimum temperature (Tmin). Our findings suggest that the water demand of coffee plants changes significantly with the phenological phases of the crop; therefore, changes in the cyclical patterns of climate variation could cause a water deficit in coffee plants, limiting their development, yield, and quality.