Impact of climate change on the habitat range of monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus)

Abstract

Abstract Danaus plexippus L. (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) is well-known and captivating migratory insect that cannot overwinter in temperate climates. Although common throughout North America, monarch butterfly populations appear to be declining widely in their geographically distinct areas. Rapid climatic change is posing a serious threat to monarch butterfly populations, especially the migratory groups in the east. This study assesses how several climate change scenarios will affect the global distribution of monarch butterflies. Using climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model, we conducted projections for the near future (2021–2040) and far future (2041–2060, 2081–2100) under high (SSP5_8.5) and low (SSP1_2.6) emission scenarios. We estimated habitat gain, loss, and stability for D. plexippus. True Skill Statistic (TSS) and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) were used to assess the model’s performance. The results indicated that annual precipitation, land cover, and altitude (Alt) were the most influential factors affecting D. plexippus distribution. Potential habitat shifts were observed in Central Asia, Africa, Europe, and North America, with both gains and losses. These findings highlight the interconnected relationship between the climatic factors and distribution of migratory insects, emphasizing the need for targeted conservation efforts to mitigate climate change impacts on D. plexippus populations. Management strategies should prioritize habitat restoration, focus on overwintering site preservation, and implement adaptive management approaches. This research provides an evidence base for adaptive management to minimize climate change impacts on migratory insect populations.