Identifying nonlinear dynamical systems using subset regression

Abstract

Abstract The data-driven discovery of governing equations for dynamical systems has emerged as a transformative paradigm, enabling the extraction of interpretable and generalizable models from observational data. While modern techniques have advanced this field, traditional subset regression remains a foundational yet underutilized tool due to its reliance on uncorrelated residuals, a requirement often violated by time-series data. In this work, we revisit subset regression to identify dynamical systems governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs), partial differential equations (PDEs), and differential algebraic equations (DAEs). We propose subset regression with known number of active features (sub-KNAFE), a user-determined sparsity mechanism that flexibly adapts to various complex nonlinear systems, while retaining the computational efficiency and inherent interpretability of traditional subset regression. We integrate sub-KNAFE with the SINDy framework, overcoming the limitation of subset regression in dynamical system identification. Numerical tests across a range of signal-to-noise ratios and dataset sizes demonstrate sub-KNAFE’s superior noise robustness and data efficiency. Practical utility for sub-KNAFE is validated on two real-world datasets: the classic Lynx-Hare ecological population data and the ISO New England power system dataset, demonstrating its strong potential for practical deployment in scientific discovery and engineering applications.