How does rural population aging affect agricultural green development in China?

Abstract

Rapid population aging significantly impacts socioeconomic development and poses substantial challenges for agricultural green development (AGD), which have so far not been well understood. This study uses data from the China Family Panel Studies conducted in 2018, 2020, and 2022 and adopts the instrumental variable two-stage least squares (IV-2SLS) method to analyze the impact and mechanisms of rural population aging on AGD from a micro-level perspective of farmers. The benchmark regression results show that rural population aging significantly hinders AGD: an increase in the proportion of older adults in the household reduces AGD by 0.346. The impact in the western region is greater than that in the central and eastern regions, primarily by restricting improvements in economic benefits (agricultural output). In contrast, its effect on environmental benefits (agricultural chemical inputs) is not statistically significant. The adoption of agricultural socialized services by older adults increases agricultural output while reducing chemical inputs, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of rural population aging on AGD. However, surging service prices discourage utilization, prompting farmers to transfer or abandon part of their farmland and continue traditional resource-intensive practices. Our analysis indicates that it is crucial to establish mechanisms to curb farmland abandonment and enhance the accessibility of agricultural socialized services for older adults in the context of rapid population aging.