High-resolution regional climate projections and tourism impacts in the Macaronesian archipelagos

Abstract

Abstract Understanding the impacts of climate change in the North Atlantic Macaronesian archipelagos of the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands, and Cabo Verde is critical due to their economic reliance on tourism. In this study, a high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) approach was applied, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by CMIP6 data through the pseudo-global warming (PGW) method. Focusing on the Holiday Climate Index for Beach tourism (HCIB), changes are projected for the mid-century (2030–2059) and end-of-century (2070–2099) against a recent past baseline (1990–2019) under both low-emissions (SSP1-2.6) and high-emissions (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Projections demonstrate pronounced latitudinal and seasonal gradients: the northern archipelagos (the Azores and Madeira) reveal increased summer suitability, while southern archipelagos (the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde) indicate enhanced winter conditions, suggesting a seasonal shift in peak tourism conditions. Thermal comfort changes predominantly drive these trends, except in Cabo Verde, where aesthetic factors (cloud cover) are more influential. These findings provide valuable insights for developing location-specific climate adaptation strategies to support sustainable tourism in these vulnerable island regions.