Global trends in prevalence and incidence of pancreatic cancer among adults aged 70 and older: A comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study (1990–2021).

Abstract

e22570 Background: Aging into the seventh decade of life marks a pivotal shift in cancer susceptibility, with pancreatic cancer (PC) emerging as one of the most relentless threats to global health. This study utilizes three decades of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to unravel unprecedented insights into the prevalence and incidence of PC among adults aged 70 and older. Methods: We analyzed data from the GBD study to assess the temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of PC from 1990 to 2021. The Annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), along with 95% confidence intervals (CI), were utilized to assess the overall trends, with statistical significance evaluated using p-values. Results: Over the past three decades, the global burden of PC has surged significantly. In 1990, the global incidence of PC stood at 45.12 per 100,000, escalating to 54.47 per 100,000 by 2021. Likewise, global prevalence increased from 30.33 per 100,000 in 1990 to 40.60 per 100,000 in 2021, with incidence rates consistently exceeding prevalence, suggesting an accelerating number of new cases of PC worldwide. The AAPC analysis revealed a significant upward trajectory in both global incidence (AAPC: 0.6085, 95% CI: 0.5801, 0.6273 p < 0.000001) and prevalence (AAPC: 0.9467, 95% CI: 0.9188, 0.9659 p < 0.000001) of PC. Following the APC analysis, several notable trends emerged. The global incidence of PC experienced its most substantial increase between 2003 and 2010 (APC: 1.0806, 95% CI: 0.9817, 1.3206 p < 0.000001), while the slowest growth in incidence occurred from 1990 to 2003 (APC: 95% CI: 0.9817, 1.3206 p = 0.000400). Conversely, the global prevalence of pancreatic cancer saw its most pronounced rise between 1998 and 2001 (APC: 2.0389, 95% CI: 1.2005, 2.1962 p < 0.000001), with the slowest increase occurring from 1994 to 1998 (APC: 0.4632, 95% CI: 0.2544, 1.9767 p = 0.001200). Conclusions: The persistent rise in both incidence and prevalence of PC over the past three decades underscores a critical global health challenge, with a marked acceleration in recent years. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions and a deeper understanding of the factors driving this expanding burden, particularly as the incidence consistently outpaces prevalence. Metric Overall 1990 2021 AAPC with 95% CI (1990-2021) INCIDENCE RATES PER 100,000 Global Incidence 45.12 54.47 0.61 (0.58, 0.63) PREVALENCE RATES PER 100,000 Global Prevalence 30.33 40.60 0.95 (0.92, 0.97)