Global trends in leukemia incidence by age, sex, and sociodemographic index: A GBD 2023 Joinpoint analysis, 2000–2023.

Abstract

e18547 Background: Leukemia remains a major contributor to the global cancer burden, with incidence patterns varying by age, sex, and sociodemographic development. Long-term, subgroup-specific global incidence trends have not been comprehensively characterized. Methods: We analyzed global leukemia incidence using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates from 2000 to 2023. Incidence rates were expressed per 100,000 population with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression, estimating annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) overall and stratified by sex, age group (<20, 20–54, >55 years), and Sociodemographic Index (SDI) categories. Results: Globally, leukemia incidence declined steadily from 2000 to 2023, with an overall AAPC of −1.08% (95% CI, −1.11% to −1.06%). By sex, incidence declined more steeply among females (AAPC −1.30%, 95% CI, −1.32% to −1.27%) than males (AAPC −0.93%, 95% CI, −0.96% to −0.90%). Across age groups, all strata experienced declining incidence, with the steepest reduction among adults aged 20–54 years (AAPC −1.13%, 95% CI, −1.17% to −1.09%), followed by individuals <20 years (AAPC −1.10%, 95% CI, −1.16% to −1.05%). Adults >55 years showed a sustained but comparatively slower decline (AAPC −1.01%, 95% CI, −1.04% to −0.97%). Across SDI strata, the largest long-term decline occurred in high SDI regions (AAPC −1.10%, 95% CI, −1.14% to −1.07%), while low SDI regions exhibited the slowest overall reduction (AAPC −0.46%, 95% CI, −0.50% to −0.43%), with periods of increase before recent declines. Conclusions: From 2000 to 2023, global leukemia incidence declined across all population subgroups. The slowest reductions were observed among males, adults aged >55 years, and populations in low SDI regions, highlighting persistent disparities despite overall downward trends.