Global trends in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in adults aged 70 and older: A Global Burden of Disease analysis (1990–2021).

Abstract

e16426 Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) represents a growing global health challenge, particularly among adults aged 70 and older, whose burden has yet to be fully explored in contemporary research. Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset from 1990 to 2021, this study aims to reveal previously unrecognized overall trends in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates of PC, offering novel insights into the accelerating impact of this aggressive malignancy on aging populations worldwide. Methods: We utilized data from the GBD study to analyze the overall trends in DALYs and mortality rates of PC from 1990 to 2021. The Annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were employed to assess the overall trends, with statistical significance determined by p-values. Results: The global burden of PC has escalated remarkably from 1990 to 2021, with both DALYs and mortality rates reflecting the growing crisis. In 1990, DALYs linked to PC were 763.26 per 100,000, but by 2021, this number surged to 848.52 per 100,000, underscoring a profound increase in the disease's impact. Likewise, mortality rates from PC rose from 49.25 per 100,000 in 1990 to 56.91 per 100,000 in 2021, highlighting an alarming upward trend in mortality linked to this aggressive malignancy. The AAPC analysis revealed a significant incline in both DALYs (AAPC: 0.3604, 95% CI: 0.3348, 0.3845) and mortality rates (AAPC: 0.4704, 95% CI: 0.4447, 0.4912) for PC from 1990 to 2021. Following the APC analysis, additional significant trends emerged. From 1990 to 1999, DALYs attributed to pancreatic cancer (PC) exhibited a moderate increase (APC: 0.2128, 95% CI: -0.0641, 0.3087), followed by a marked rise from 1999 to 2021 (APC: 0.4208, 95% CI: 0.3866, 0.4791). In contrast, mortality rates related to PC saw the most pronounced increase between 2003 and 2018 (APC: 0.7713, 95% CI: 0.7380, 0.8341). The slowest rise in mortality rates occurred from 1990 to 1994 (APC: 0.4389, 95% CI: 0.3179, 0.6879). Conclusions: The global burden of PC has escalated significantly over the past three decades, with both DALYs and mortality rates reflecting a relentless rise in the disease’s impact. These findings underscore the critical need for targeted interventions and comprehensive strategies to address the growing burden, particularly in aging populations. Metric Overall 1990 2021 AAPC with 95% CI (1990-2021) Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) Rates per 100,000 Global DALYs 763.26 848.52 0.36 (0.33, 0.38) Mortality rates per 100,000 Global Mortality 49.25 56.91 0.47 (0.44, 0.49)