Global stalled tropical cyclones in a changing climate

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) stalling refers to a storm wandering within a relatively small region. When TC stalling occurs, localized accumulated damage can increase substantially. However, the understanding of this special behavior globally, especially its response to climate warming, remains limited. Here, we provide a comprehensive global analysis of TC stalling and its response to climate warming, utilizing both observational data and climate model simulations. Our results reveal a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, showing that basins in the Southern Hemisphere are more prone to TC stalling than those in the Northern Hemisphere. Although a warming climate reduces the global probability of TC stalling occurrence, it significantly increases the daily rainfall by these storms, particularly over land and nearshore regions. Our analysis also indicates that, although the main drivers for the stalling vary in different basins, in general, they are mainly influenced by the steering wind vector (magnitude and direction) and TC location. Furthermore, changes in probability of TC stalling in climate warming are mainly affected by changes in the probability of TC exposure to a weak steering flow.