Global, regional and national burden of injuries caused by fire, heat, and hot substances from 1990 to 2021

Abstract

Background Burn injuries, which are caused by fire, heat, and hot substances, are considered a chronic condition due to their long-term effects on the health of affected individuals. Moreover, burn injuries constitute a significant public health issue that cannot be overlooked within the global healthcare system. Materials and methods This study comprehensively analyzed the burden of burn injuries, focusing on variations by Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) levels and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions, sex-based disparities, Frontier analysis, and future trend forecasting using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model. Results Compared to 1990, the global burden of burn injuries decreased in most regions worldwide in 2021. The majority of regions showed a negative Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC), indicating a continuous decline in Age-Standardized Rate (ASR) annually. And the ASR decreased with the increasing SDI. Moreover, the forecasted trend from 2021 to 2030, indicates a continued decline with a well-fitted projection model. Conclusions Despite the observed and projected decline in global ASR of burn, the burden of burn remains a significant concern that should not be underestimated.