Global implications of uncertainty in China’s climate policy delivery

Abstract

Abstract The delivery of China’s climate policy has substantial global implications, yet persistent gaps between policy targets and implementation raise concerns about policy credibility. This study presents a structured credibility assessment of 292 targets across 58 national climate and energy policies, including China’s updated 2035 NDC. We apply a morphological scenario framework to examine interactions between policy uncertainty and socio-economic and technological drivers, embedding these scenarios in an integrated assessment model under two global contexts: one aligned with current NDCs and one consistent with global net-zero ambition. We find that timely or accelerated delivery of China’s net-zero target could partially offset insufficient ambition elsewhere by mid-century. Full delivery by 2050 reduces global CO₂ emissions to 13 Gt, compared with 23 Gt without such policies. Policy delivery uncertainty alone could imply up to ~500 GtCO₂ difference in cumulative emissions by 2100 (~0.17 °C warming).