Global decline in pollination limitation of pollinator-dependent crops

Abstract

Biotic pollination benefits 75% of crops, representing about 35% of global food production. Given widespread reports of pollinator decline over the last decades, crop yield losses might be expected. However, global assessments of their impact on crop yield are still missing. We analyzed temporal trends in pollination limitation (PL) and evaluated whether the use of managed pollinators and autogamy capacity reduced yield losses. We used a global dataset on the effects of pollen supplementation in pollinator-dependent crops to assess changes in PL from 1950 to present and performed a meta-analysis using 790 effect sizes across 86 crops. Our findings reveal that PL is widespread across pollinator-dependent crops, averaging 36%. However, PL has declined by 50% between 1950 and the 2010s. Crops with managed pollinators were associated with lower PL than crops without them. Importantly, fields supplemented with managed pollinators showed a steady decline in PL over time, whereas unmanaged fields showed no evidence of decline. Autogamy capacity was associated with lower PL levels. Our study highlights the importance of managed pollinators for crop production and reinforces the potential role of breeding traits aimed at increasing autogamy to reduce PL. The results suggest that current pollination management practices have become increasingly efficient in crop production systems, possibly helping to mitigate the negative impacts of wild pollinator declines. However, continued efforts to diversify pollination strategies, including the conservation of wild pollinators and the management of alternative pollinator species, can have a relevant role in ensuring long-term resilience and sustainability of global agriculture.