Gender-specific trends in incidence and prevalence of pancreatic cancer: A Global Burden of Disease analysis in adults aged 70 and older (1990–2021).

Abstract

e16410 Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC), once considered rare, has emerged as a significant contributor to global cancer mortality. This study examines the gender-specific incidence and prevalence of PC among adults aged 70 and older from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Methods: We examined data from the GBD study to explore trends in PC incidence and prevalence by gender from 1990 to 2021. Changes over time were evaluated using the Annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), with statistical significance verified through p-values. Results: Between 1990 and 2021, the global prevalence of PC steadily increased for both genders, reaching its peak in 2021 at 38.44 per 100,000 for females and 43.34 per 100,000 for males. In 2021, the incidence rates showed that males had a rate of 58.94 per 100,000, compared to 50.97 per 100,000 for females. Notably, both the incidence and prevalence rates of PC were higher in males than in females. The AAPC analysis highlighted that males experienced a more rapid increase in both prevalence and incidence of PC compared to females over the past three decades. The disparity in AAPC was more pronounced for incidence (+0.1308%) than for prevalence (+0.1222%), with all AAPC values reaching statistical significance (p < 0.000001). Following the APC analysis, additional significant trends were observed. Male incidence showed the most substantial increase between 2006 and 2010 (APC: 1.3176, 95% CI: 0.6823, 1.4802), whereas female incidence experienced the highest rise from 2003 to 2009 (APC: 0.9503, 95% CI: 0.4823, 1.2448). In contrast, male prevalence saw the steepest increase between 1997 and 2002 (APC: 1.7868, 95% CI: 1.4525, 1.9301), while female prevalence rates grew most rapidly between 1998 and 2001 (APC: 1.9616, 95% CI: 1.6708, 2.1185). Furthermore, we found that male prevalence rates exhibited the slowest increase between 1994 and 1997 (APC: 0.1634), while female prevalence rates showed the most modest increase between 1994 and 1998 (APC: 0.4611). In contrast, the most gradual rise in incidence rates for males occurred between 1990 and 1997 (APC: 0.2243), whereas for females, the slowest uptick in incidence rates was observed from 1994 to 2003 (APC: 0.3305). Conclusions: The prevalence and incidence of PC among individuals aged 70 and older increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, with a more pronounced rise in males. This underscores the necessity for gender-specific approaches in PC screening and management, as well as further research into the factors contributing to these disparities. Metric Gender 1990 2021 AAPC (1990-2021) INCIDENCE RATES PER 100,000 Male 47.86 58.94 0.6699 Female 43.23 50.97 0.5391 PREVALENCE RATES PER 100,000 Male 31.82 43.34 1.0017 Female 29.30 38.44 0.8848