Gender-specific trends in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in adults aged 70 and older: A Global Burden of Disease analysis (1990-2021).

Abstract

e16423 Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the most aggressive malignancies, disproportionately affecting older adults. Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), this study investigates gender-specific trends in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates for PC among adults aged 70 and older from 1990 to 2021. Methods: DALYs and mortality rates associated with PC were extracted for both genders from the GBD-2021 study from 1990 to 2021. The Annual Percentage Change (APC) and the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) were calculated, along with 95% confidence intervals (CI), to assess the statistical significance of the trends using the p-value. Results: In 1990, DALY rates were 837.25 for men and 711.95 for women, increasing to 950.68 and 768.31, respectively, by 2021. Mortality rates followed a similar pattern: men’s rates rose from 52.05 in 1990 to 61.37 in 2021, while women’s increased from 47.31 to 53.40. Men consistently experienced higher burdens than women. The AAPC analysis revealed that men exhibited a steeper rise in both DALYs and mortality rates associated with PC compared to women over the past three decades. Notably, the gender disparity was more evident in DALYs (+0.1929%) than in mortality rates (+0.1358%), with all AAPC values demonstrating statistical significance (p < 0.000001). Following the APC analysis, additional significant trends were identified. Among males, DALY rates demonstrated the most pronounced increase between 1997 and 2021 (APC: 0.5397, 95% CI: 0.5118, 0.5645), whereas in females, the most significant rise occurred from 1990 to 1993 (APC: 0.6593, 95% CI: 0.3608, 1.1016). Conversely, the slowest increase in DALY rates among females was observed between 1993 and 2003 (APC: 0.0925, 95% CI: -0.2053, 0.1641). For mortality rates, the most notable rise in males was observed between 2007 and 2010 (APC: 1.2314, 95% CI: 1.0292, 1.3195), while females experienced their sharpest escalation from 1990 to 1994 (APC: 0.6891, 95% CI: 0.4322, 1.0720). In contrast, the slowest rate of progression in mortality among females occurred between 1993 and 2002 (APC: 0.1736, 95% CI: 0.0180, 0.2368). Conclusions: Over the past three decades, men have experienced a significantly more pronounced rise in DALYs and mortality rates related to PC compared to women.These findings highlight the urgent need for gender-specific interventions to address the growing burden of PC in aging populations. Trends in DALY and mortality rates per 100,000 by gender (1990-2021). Metrics Gender 1990 2021 APC (1990-2021) Daly Rates per 100,000 Male 837.25 950.68 0.4422 Female 711.9 768.31 0.2493 Mortality Rates per 100,000 Male 52.05 61.37 0.5366 Female 47.31 53.40 0.4008