Future strategies for phosphorus sustainability amid worsening global cycle imbalances
Abstract
Global anthropogenic phosphorus (P) cycle changes require active management with differentiated sustainability strategies across countries. This study developed a universal framework that integrates the comprehensive P flow process with sustainability scenarios to assess global anthropogenic P flow patterns and explore future sustainability pathways and potential. The results indicated that the global P flow imbalance intensified from 1961 to 2022, with over 80% attributed to croplands. Crucially, global trade serves as a significant driving force, redistributing P resources and reinforcing the global complexity of P-pollution footprints, driven by 35 key countries. Our model projects that by 2050, individual measures like reducing fertilizer applications, improving feed conversion efficiency, and recycling organic fertilizers could save 50% of P and reduce P losses by 39%. Crop–livestock integration significantly improved P use efficiency, potentially extending the global phosphate rock extraction period by 400 ± 87 y (mean ± SD). However, due to the low baseline P use efficiency in cropping systems, P recovery from waste in developing countries remains limited, necessitating additional measures alongside the above high-leverage measures. These findings underscore the indispensable role of human consumption and the transformative potential of dietary shifts, which are essential given that no country can achieve significant P sustainability gains solely by reducing food waste or processing losses. Coordinated supply and demand-side measures linking cropping, livestock, and consumption offer key strategies and benefits for systematically and differentially advancing P sustainability at both global and national levels.
Article Details
Journal Info
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
Authors (18)
Wei Liu
Haijun Wang
Yunnan Key Laboratory of Ecological Protection and Resource Utilization of River-lake Networks, International Joint Laboratory for Yunnan River and Lake Ecosystem Restoration Green Technology, Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University
Zhiwen Li
Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutralization, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydrological Monitoring and Research in Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province, School of Resource and Environment, Nanchang University
Tian Qin
Department of Biochemistry, The University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, 5323 Harry Hines Blvd., Dallas, Texas 75390, United States
Mingyang Li
Wuhu Guo
Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutralization, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydrological Monitoring and Research in Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province, School of Resource and Environment, Nanchang University
Yuejin Chen
Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutralization, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydrological Monitoring and Research in Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province, School of Resource and Environment, Nanchang University
Yanqi Liu
Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutralization, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydrological Monitoring and Research in Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province, School of Resource and Environment, Nanchang University
Evgeny Abakumov
Department of Applied Ecology, Saint Petersburg State University
Wenjuan Wang
School of Life Sciences, Technology Center for Protein Sciences, Tsinghua University
Wending Huang
Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutralization, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydrological Monitoring and Research in Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province, School of Resource and Environment, Nanchang University
Xiaowen Ji
Environmental Chemistry Laboratory, Department of Toxic Substances Control, California Environmental Protection Agency
Yingming Zhou
Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutralization, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydrological Monitoring and Research in Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province, School of Resource and Environment, Nanchang University
Xuejun Liu
Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutralization, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydrological Monitoring and Research in Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province, School of Resource and Environment, Nanchang University
Huoqing Xiao
Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutralization, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydrological Monitoring and Research in Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province, School of Resource and Environment, Nanchang University
Zugen Liu
Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Control, Jiangxi Academy of Eco-environmental Sciences and Planning
Hannan Ahmad Anjum
Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutralization, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydrological Monitoring and Research in Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province, School of Resource and Environment, Nanchang University
Xianchuan Xie
Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutralization, Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydrological Monitoring and Research in Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province, School of Resource and Environment, Nanchang University