Future scenarios for British biodiversity under climate and land-use change

Abstract

Abstract Projections of biodiversity futures are needed to translate global policies into national action. We use dissimilarity modelling to project climate change scenarios for 1002 plant, 56 butterfly, and 219 bird species across Great Britain up to 2080. Under all scenarios we find extensive community reorganisation, with the disappearance of current bioclimates and emergence of novel ones. We also explore impacts of combined climate and land-use change, finding that even optimistic scenarios could see accumulating extinction debts. Scenarios featuring reduced emissions and a more sustainable society could bend the curve of loss, reducing species heading for extinction by 32% for plants, 14% for butterflies, and 20% for birds. Scenarios differ in impact between groups, with plants showing the most severe responses to environmental change. Overall, we show that actions taken during the next 20 years are crucial to mitigate the worst effects of climate and land-use change for biodiversity in Britain.