From risk to reward: Redefining the role of GLP-1 receptor agonist in pancreatic cancer primary prevention.

Abstract

e16449 Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) carries a dismal 5-year survival of < 12%, and no FDA-approved agents exist for primary prevention. PC risk is strongly linked to obesity, diabetes, and chronic inflammation. Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) directly target obesity-driven inflammatory pathways, reduce metabolic stress, and modulate signaling pathways (PI3K/AKT/mTOR) that drive cancer apoptosis. Based on this biological rationale, we conducted the first large-scale real-world study to evaluate the safety and efficacy of GLP-1RA for primary prevention of PC in high-risk patients. Methods: Leveraging a large real-world database (TriNetX), we identified patients aged 18-90 years with ≥1 PC risk factor (tobacco use, obesity, type 2 diabetes, alcohol use disorder, chronic pancreatitis, first-degree relative with PC, genetic susceptibility to PC) based on ICD-10 codes. Patients were stratified by GLP-1RA exposure into two cohorts: Cohort A (GLP-1RA users with ≥ 2 months of prescriptions) and Cohort B (controls). The primary endpoint was incident PC, and the secondary endpoints were adverse events related to GLP-1RAs. Patients with outcomes before the study window were excluded. Propensity score matching adjusted for confounders. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for categorical outcomes, and the Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios for time-to-event outcomes. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were employed to validate the strength of our results. Results: Median follow-up was 3,397 days for GLP-1RA users and 2,531 days for controls. Demographics were balanced between cohorts (mean age 42 years; 74% White, 15% Black; 72% female). Among 572,330 high-risk patients (286,165 per cohort), PC incidence was significantly lower among GLP-1RA users (0.05%; 134/286,165) than among non-users (0.13%; 362/286,097), with a 2.6-fold reduction in the absolute incidence of PC among high-risk patients (NNT of 1,255). GLP-1RA use was associated with a 71% reduction in PC incidence (HR 0.289; 95% CI 0.237–0.352). GLP-1RA use was associated with an increased risk of gastrointestinal adverse events, including nausea/vomiting (HR 1.108; 95% CI 1.096–1.121), abdominal pain (HR 1.081; 95% CI 1.066–1.097), diarrhea (HR 1.199; 95% CI 1.182–1.217), and constipation (HR 1.159; 95% CI 1.143–1.176). Conclusions: GLP-1RA use significantly reduced PC incidence by 71% in high-risk patients, the strongest real-world signal yet for a pharmacologic prevention of this lethal malignancy. Although the absolute incidence remained low, the magnitude of the risk reduction underscores the transformative potential of GLP-1RA in preventive oncology. These findings address a critical unmet need in pancreatic oncology. Prospective mechanistic and randomized studies are warranted to validate these associations.