Forecasting the head and neck cancer burden in Vietnam: Projections from the Hanoi Cancer Registry.

Abstract

e18075 Background: In Vietnam, head and neck cancers (HNC) represent a growing public health challenge. However, limited long-term, population-based evidence on HNC incidence complicates efficient health system planning, resource allocation, and prevention strategies. The objective of this study was to project HNC incidence in Northern Vietnam through 2045. Methods: HNC data (ICD-10 codes C00–C14 and C30–C32) from 1991 to 2020 were obtained from the Hanoi Cancer Registry, alongside population data from the Vietnam General Statistics Office. Age-standardized rates (ASR) were calculated based on the WHO World Standard Population (2000). Poisson regression models were used to identify joinpoints in historical trends and to estimate incidence over the next two decades. Future incidence was projected under the assumption that the estimated Annual Percentage Change (APC) from the most recently identified trend segment would remain constant through 2045. Results: The annual number of HNC cases in Hanoi increased fivefold between 1991 and 2020 (206 vs. 1,025 cases). ASR increased from 19.0 to 25.1 per 100,000 person-years. By 2045, the total annual number of new cases is projected to reach 2,501 (144% increase vs. 2020), with ASR projected to rise to 35.2 per 100,000 person-years (Table 1). The sharpest increases are projected among older age groups (60+ years), with incidence rates in men remaining consistently higher than in women. Conclusions: HNC incidence in Hanoi has risen historically and is projected to more than double by 2045 compared to 2020. This surge is driven by both the increasing risk of disease (rising ASR) and population aging. Our findings underscore the urgent need for targeted early screening, workforce expansion in oncology, and strengthened health system infrastructure to manage the escalating public health demand in Vietnam and other lower- and middle-income countries with similar demographics and cancer burden. Two-decade projection of age-standardized HNC incidence rates per 100,000 person-years in Hanoi, Vietnam. Year Cases (N) Crude Rate (95% CI) ASR (95% CI) 2020 1,025 12.5 (11.7-13.2) 25.1 (23.5-26.6) Projections 2025 1,262 14.1 (13.3-14.9) 26.9 (25.4-28.5) 2030 1,525 16.1 (15.3-16.9) 28.7 (27.3-30.2) 2035 1,848 18.7 (17.8-19.5) 30.7 (29.3-32.1) 2040 2,173 21.2 (20.3-22.1) 32.8 (31.4-34.2) 2045 2,501 23.6 (22.7-24.5) 35.2 (33.8-36.6)