Forecasting incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in older adults using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA).

Abstract

e22574 Background: Prostate cancer is the second most common and fifth deadliest cancer in men worldwide, with incidence and mortality rates influenced by regional and economic factors. In older adults, differing physiological conditions impact treatment efficacy and side effects, requiring careful therapeutic planning. Methods: Incidence rates for individuals over 70 years of age for the seven super regions (Central, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, High-income countries, North Africa and Middle East, Latin America and Caribbean, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast, East Asia and Oceania) were extracted from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and analyzed using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) in Stata 18.0 to forecast incidence rates from 2022-2050. Mortality rates were extracted and forecasted from GBD foresight visualization tool. The total percentage change in incidence and mortality rates were calculated compared to 2021 and presented for each of the seven regions. Results: Most of the super regions are expected to have an increase in the incidence rate in 2030 and 2050 (Central, Eastern Europe and Central Asia: 2030-4.0%, 2050-29.3%, North Africa and Middle East: 2030-14.8%, 2050-49.1%, South Asia: 2030-16.7%, 2050-46.2%, Sub-Saharan Africa: 2030-5.0%, 2050-20.3%, Southeast, East Asia and Oceania: 2030-14.7%, 2050-46.1%). Only Latin America and Caribbean is expected to have a decrease in the incidence rate in 2030 and 2050: 2030- 2.3%, 2050-4.7%.Mortality rates are expected to increase for most of the seven super regions (Central, Eastern Europe and Central Asia: 2030-0.4%, 2050-5.6%, High-income countries: 2030-7.5%, 2050-28.9%, Latin America and Caribbean: 2030-1.1%, 2050-13.4%, South Asia: 2030-7.2%, 2050-27.4%, Sub-Saharan Africa: 2030-2.2%, 2050-14.2%, Southeast, East Asia and Oceania: 2030-5.6%, 2050-42.2%). Mortality rate in North Africa and Middle East is expected to decrease in 2030-3.9% and then increase in 2050-7.1%. Conclusions: Forecast trends indicate rising prostate cancer incidence in high-income countries, except Latin America and the Caribbean. The highest increase is expected in North Africa and the Middle East. Mortality rates are also projected to rise globally, emphasizing the need for enhanced treatment research for the elderly. Incidence rate per 100,000 population Mortality rate per 100,000 population Super regions 2021 2030 2050 2021 2030 2050 Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia 453.2 471.4 585.9 229.7 231.0 243.2 Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania 115.2 132.1 167.9 71.0 74.4 100.9 North Africa and Middle East 271.1 310.8 403.6 128.0 123.4 136.8 Sub-Saharan Africa 360.5 378.2 433.1 355.5 363.2 405.5 South Asia 78.3 90.9 114.3 69.7 74.7 88.8 High-income countries 641.9 646.8 649.3 221. 4 237.9 284.8 Latin America and Caribbean 554.3 541.3 528.1 290.8 293.3 329.9