Forecasting global disparities in cervix and corpus uteri cancers: GLOBOCAN 2022–2040 projections.

Abstract

5614 Background: Uterine cancers, including cervix uteri (C53) and corpus uteri (C54), are a major burden on global healthcare with marked geographic and socioeconomic disparities. Key risk factors including persistent high-risk HPV infection for cervical cancers), limited screening access, and modifiable factors like obesity and exogenous hormone exposure (e.g., oral contraceptive use), which vary across settings and could influence future burden. Predicting epidemiological trends is essential to guide prevention, screening, and treatment modalities. This study compares predicted changes in incidence and mortality for C53 and C54 across countries, WHO regions, income groups, and HDI categories from 2022 to 2040. Methods: Incidence and mortality data for 2022 and predictions for 2040 were extracted from GLOBOCAN database for 185 countries. Countries were classified by WHO region, World Bank income level, and HDI categories. Percentage changes in incidence and mortality were calculated for both cancer types across all categories. Results: Globally, C53 incidence is forecasted to rise from 1.32 million to 5.94 million cases (+348.4%), with mortality increasing from 697,418 to 3.41 million deaths (+389.5%). C54 shows a modest increase in incidence (840,256 to 899,224; +7.0%) but substantial increase in mortality (195,310 to 899,224; +360.5%). Across WHO regions, the largest increases in C53 incidence and mortality occur in AFRO and EMRO (+1043%, +1066% and +918%, +1029%, respectively). C54 incidence advances most in AFRO (+279%) and EMRO (+254%) and least in EURO (+97.8%). Mortality growth is highest in EMRO (+1205%) and AFRO (+1106%). Income-level patterns show increasing disparities: low-income countries have the highest increases for C53 incidence (+1062%) and mortality (+1073%), with high-income regions showing the lowest (+693%, +781%). Similar trends are observed for C54, with incidence rising most in low-income settings (+302%) and least in high-income regions (+139%), while mortality increases range from +1096% (low-income) to +872% (high-income). HDI patterns are similar to income trends: Low-HDI countries reveal the highest increases for C53 (+1062% incidence, +1073% mortality) and C54 (+302%, +1096%), while Very-High-HDI regions show the lowest rises for both cancers. Conclusions: Burden of uterine cancer is predicted to rise steeply by 2040, with greatest increases in low-income, low-HDI, AFRO, and EMRO regions. The disproportionate escalation in mortality (especially for corpus uteri cancers) highlight the importance of prevention, screening, early detection, and equal access to treatment to prevent expanding global disparities, including improved availability of HPV vaccination, targeted public education efforts, and engagement of primary care physicians and OB/GYNs to ensure that patients are vaccinated and screened appropriately.