FLP-R: A clinical prediction model for follicular lymphoma Prognosis in the Relapsed/refractory setting

Abstract

Abstract Background: Prognostication for patients with non-transformed relapsed/refractory (R/R) follicular lymphoma (FL) is not well defined. Progression of disease within 24 months (POD24) and number of lines of prior therapy are commonly used to benchmark outcomes and for trial eligibility in this space. However, a comprehensive model for risk prediction in R/R FL is lacking. Here we utilize patients from the LEO Consortium for Real World Evidence (CReWE) and Iowa/Mayo Clinic Lymphoma SPORE MER to develop a clinical prediction model for R/R FL. Methods: Patients with grade 1-3A FL were prospectively enrolled at diagnosis in the MER and/or initiated second line or later therapy (2L+) for non-transformed FL at one of the 8 LEO Centers from a previous LEO CReWE study (Casulo et al, Lancet Haem 2022). All available lines of therapy were abstracted; lines of therapy after histologic transformation were not used in the analyses. A management plan of observation was considered as a type of therapy in the 1L setting but not in the 2L+ setting. Clinical variables and outcomes were abstracted at each line of therapy. Variables considered for modeling included demographics, clinical labs, treatment history, and pertinent clinical variables (including FLIPI and FLIPI24 components). Multiple imputation was used to address missing data in modeling; beta-2 microglobulin (B2M) was unable to be imputed due to the amount of missing data. Index therapy was defined as the date of initiation of a line of therapy (2L, 3L or 4L) for non-transformed FL. The primary endpoint for model development was the time from index therapy until the histologic transformation or lymphoma-related death (HT/LD). Cox proportional hazards models were used for model development. Modeling was first performed separately for each line of therapy and then evaluated across lines. Bootstrapping on imputed datasets was used to assess optimism in model performance. Results: N=1001 patients initiated 2L+ therapy and were utilized for modeling. Of these patients, N=654 initiated 3L and N=344 initiated 4L therapy. Median age at index therapy was (60, 61, and 62) for lines 2-4, respectively. Median follow-up by line of therapy was 8.2, 6.1, and 6,1 years and number of HT/LD events for modeling was 272, 154, and 88, respectively. Observed outcomes decreased modestly as the line therapy increased: median event-free (1.6, 1.5, and 1.2 years) and overall survival (17.6 years, 14.5 years, and 12.3 years), for lines 2-4, respectively. 5-year estimates of HT/LD by line of therapy were 21.6% (95% CI: 18.9-24.3), 23.7% (95% CI: 19.9-27.4) and 29.3% (95% CI: 23.3-34.7), respectively. A clinical prediction model was independently developed for each line of therapy; the final model for each line consisted of the same variables: increasing age, male sex, higher LDH, lower hemoglobin, higher white blood cell count, prior immunochemotherapy exposure, and shorter time since initial diagnosis. The parameter estimates for these variables were broadly similar across the different lines of therapy. The model output is an individual patient's risk of HT/LD. Patients with high-risk FLP-R, as defined using the upper quartile of FLP-R risk scores for each line, had observed 5 year HT/LD rates of 43%, 44% and 51% in lines 2-4, respectively. In contrast, patients with the lower quartile of FLP-R risk scores had observed 5 year HT/LD rates of 10%, 6% and 8% in lines 2-4, respectively. The optimism-corrected c-statistic for the FLP-R model across all lines of therapy was 0.685. This added significant information beyond FLIPI diagnosis (c=0.533) FLIPI at index line (c=0.563), the line of therapy (c=0.525), POD24 status (c=0.578), or all 4 variables combined (c=0.614). Conclusions: The FLP-R model identifies a group of patients with non-transformed FL in the R/R setting who are at very high risk of transformation and/or lymphoma-related death across lines of therapy. FLP-R features 4 of the 5 components of the 1L FLIPI24 prediction model (B2M was unavailable for modeling) with the addition of sex, treatment history and time since initial diagnosis. The number of prior therapies is not sufficient to identify high-risk populations for clinical trial enrichment in the R/R FL setting and model discrimination for FLP-R was greatly improved over FLIPI and/or POD24 across lines of therapy. A Shiny app will be provided for model implementation; external validation is planned.