Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change
Abstract
Abstract Accurately predicting species’ responses to anthropogenic climate change is hampered by limited knowledge of their spatiotemporal ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We combine landscape genomics, demographic reconstructions, and species distribution models to assess the eco-evolutionary responses to past climate fluctuations and to future climate of an Afro-Palaearctic migratory raptor, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). We uncover two evolutionarily and ecologically distinct lineages (European and Asian), whose demographic history, evolutionary divergence, and historical distribution range were profoundly shaped by past climatic fluctuations. Using future climate projections, we find that the Asian lineage is at higher risk of range contraction, increased migration distance, climate maladaptation, and consequently greater extinction risk than the European lineage. Our results emphasise the importance of providing historical context as a baseline for understanding species’ responses to contemporary climate change, and illustrate how incorporating intraspecific genetic variation improves the ecological realism of climate change vulnerability assessments.
Article Details
Authors (43)
Joan Ferrer Obiol
Dipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano
Anastasios Bounas
Mattia Brambilla
Gianluca Lombardo
Simona Secomandi
Josephine R. Paris
Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University
Alessio Iannucci
James R. Whiting
Giulio Formenti
Andrea Bonisoli-Alquati
Gentile Francesco Ficetola
Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of Milan
Andrea Galimberti
Jennifer Balacco
Nyambayar Batbayar
Alexandr E. Bragin
Manuela Caprioli
Inês Catry
Jacopo G. Cecere
Batmunkh Davaasuren
Federico De Pascalis
Ron Efrat
Kiraz Erciyas-Yavuz
João Gameiro
Gradimir Gradev
Bettina Haase
Todd E. Katzner
Jacquelyn Mountcastle
Kresimir Mikulic
Michelangelo Morganti
Liviu G. Pârâu
Airam Rodríguez
Maurizio Sarà
Elisavet-Aspasia Toli
Nikos Tsiopelas
Claudio Ciofi
Luca Gianfranceschi
Erich D. Jarvis
Anna Olivieri
Konstantinos Sotiropoulos
Michael Wink
Emiliano Trucchi
Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University
Antonio Torroni
Diego Rubolini