Evidence of a cascading positive tipping point towards electric vehicles

Abstract

Abstract Electric vehicles have recently seen rapid innovation, decline in cost and a rise in popularity. Past a tipping point where uptake becomes self-propelling, electric vehicles could irreversibly replace internal combustion engine vehicles, as industry discontinues conventional production chains. Here we provide evidence that this tipping point has occurred or lies within the next few years in lead markets of the European Union and China, and potentially the United States, which could spill out into peripheral vehicle markets across the rest of the world. The historical evidence shows a sudden decline in conventional vehicle sales starting around 2019 concurrent to a rapid rise in sales of electric vehicles. Critically, we observe a loss of resilience of the incumbent technology consistent with the approach to a tipping point. We use simulations of technology evolution to identify timescales for cost-parity and policy frameworks that could accelerate the transition to largely eliminate combustion vehicles before 2050.