Evaluation of plasma methylated DNA markers for detection HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma: A case control study.

Abstract

6057 Background: The incidence rate of human papillomavirus associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPV(+)OPSCC) has persistently increased over the past decade and is anticipated to rise further over the next decade. Cost effective, accurate, and less invasive screening options for HPV(+)OPSCC have remained stagnant leading to the interrogation of circulating tumor DNA in liquid biopsies such as plasma. We hypothesized that candidate methylated DNA markers (MDMs), previously described by our group, would be present in the plasma of patients with HPV(+)OPSCC and absent in controls. Methods: HPV(+)OPSCC cases were enrolled from a high-volume referral practice. Cancer-free control patients were identified from the surrounding 7-county catchment area and frequency matched to cases by age and alcohol use. cfDNA was extracted from 4 mL of plasma and bisulfite converted prior to Target Enrichment Long-probe Quantitative Amplified Signal assays for 15 MDMs. Strand counts for individual MDMs were normalized to a methylated genomic reference marker. An MDM score was derived via random forest modeling of the 15 MDMs. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) for discriminating cases from controls was evaluated for individual markers and for the MDM score. The sensitivity of the MDM score at 95% specificity was also evaluated. Results: The study consisted of 96 HPV(+)OPSCC and 100 cancer-free controls. The study population was predominately white (95%) with a median age of 61 yrs (IQR: 52-69 yrs). Eighty-nine percent of the cases were male with cancers affecting either the tonsil in 50 (52%) or base of the tongue in 46 (48%) patients; by design 50% of controls were male. Stage I:II:III:IV disease was present in 66%:22%:9%:3% of the cases. The median (IQR) AUC across the 15 MDMs was 0.83 (0.82-0.85) overall: 0.78 (0.77-0.83) for stage I disease and 0.92 (0.91-0.93) for stage II-IV disease. The MDM score for the combined panel of 15 MDMs achieved a cross-validated AUC of 0.93 (CI: 0.89-0.97) overall: 0.90 (CI: 0.84-0.96) for stage I disease and 0.98 (CI: 0.97-1.00) for stage II-IV disease. At 95% specificity, the cross-validated sensitivity of the MDM score for HPV(+)OPSCC was 80% (CI: 71-87%) overall: 73% (CI: 60-83%) for stage I disease and 94% (CI: 78-99%) for stage II-IV disease. Conclusions: We validated a set of previously discovered MDM markers in HPV(+)OPSCC in a robust case control cohort using plasma. The MDMs were detected in both early and late-stage disease. Additional prospective studies in larger intended use cohorts are needed to validate our results for clinical use.