Estimated glucose disposal rate predicts frailty through diabetes: Evidence from machine learning and mediation models in NHANES

Abstract

Objective As an emerging insulin resistance marker, the relationship between estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) and frailty needs further exploration. This study examines the eGDR-frailty link, develops a machine learning predictive model to address this gap, and explores diabetes mellitus (DM) as a mediator, providing new insights for clinical intervention. Methods Using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2010 data, we analyzed glucose disposal and frailty associations. Feature selection used LASSO, and class imbalance was handled by SMOTEN. The resampled data were split 7:3 into a training set (n = 29,309) and a test set (n = 12,561).Ten machine learning models were built, with discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility evaluated to identify the optimal model. Confusion matrices visualized performance. Mediation analysis assessed DM’s role in the eGDR-frailty relationship. Results Among 26,282 participants, eGDR negatively correlated with frailty. Higher eGDR significantly reduced frailty risk in subgroups: women, age ≤ 60, normal/high BMI, never/current smokers, and alcohol users. LASSO selected 12 predictors. Across 10 models, CatBoost performed best on the test set (AUC = 0.970, accuracy = 0.920, F1 = 0.918), with robust calibration and decision-curve net benefit. SHAP interpretation ranked eGDR among the most influential predictors: SHAP summary and dependence plots indicated that higher eGDR decreased the model’s predicted probability of frailty. Confusion matrices validated classification accuracy. Mediation analysis showed DM partially mediated the eGDR-frailty relationship: indirect effect β=−0.003 (95% CI −0.003 to −0.002; P < 0.001), mediation proportion = 8.71%. Conclusion This first NHANES-based study demonstrates a significant negative correlation between eGDR and frailty, confirming DM’s partial mediating role. The developed machine learning models effectively support early frailty risk assessment and intervention.