Epidemiology, survival disparities, and future incidence projections of small intestine neuroendocrine carcinoma in the United States: A population-based SEER analysis.

Abstract

e16322 Background: Small intestine neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC) is a rare, aggressive malignancy comprising less than 0.1% of gastrointestinal cancers. Population-level data remain limited, restricting understanding of long-term survival patterns, demographic disparities, and evolving disease burden. We evaluated survival outcomes, demographic predictors, and incidence trends of small intestine NEC in the United States. Methods: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using SEER Research Data (17 registries, November 2024 submission). Patients diagnosed with malignant small intestine NEC (ICD-O-3 morphology code 9.3.3.1.2) between 2000 and 2022 were identified using SEER*Stat (v9.0.4.2). Variables including age group, sex, race, year of diagnosis, survival time, and vital status were analyzed in R (v4.5.1). Overall survival (OS) was estimated using Kaplan–Meier methods and compared using log-rank testing. Cox proportional hazards models identified independent predictors of OS. Annual case counts were modeled using time-series forecasting to project future incidence. Results: A total of 506 patients were included. Estimated OS was 94.4% (95% CI 92.4–96.4) at 1 year, 88.1% (85.3–91.0) at 3 years, and 82.4% (79.0–85.9) at 5 years, with a subset demonstrating survival beyond 15 years. Increasing age was associated with worse survival (log-rank p = 0.058). Significant racial differences in OS were observed (log-rank p < 0.0001). In multivariable analysis, race remained independently associated with OS. Incidence forecasting projected a modest increase in annual case burden over the next decade. Conclusions: Small intestine NEC demonstrates heterogeneous survival outcomes, significant demographic disparities, and projected growth in disease burden. These findings highlight the need for improved risk stratification, equitable access to care, and integration of molecular and treatment-level data to optimize management of this rare malignancy