Energy, environment, and economy implications of electrifying minibus taxis in African cities

Abstract

Abstract The electrification of minibus taxis in Africa is envisioned to play an important role in decarbonising transportation, reducing urban air pollution, and generating economic savings. However, comprehensive quantifications of these implications are scarce. This study introduces a modelling approach based on readily available data to simulate minibus operation and evaluate the key energy, environmental, and economic implications of such an electrification. Applying our model to nine diverse African cities, we find that electrifying minibuses could prevent the emission of 4.3 to 19.2 tCO $$_2$$ annually per vehicle, based on current electricity mixes, while saving minibus owner-operators US$1.2k to US$14.0k in annual fuel costs. Using a relative exposure index for minibus-related air pollution, we also identify that approximately 23 million people across these cities could benefit from improved air quality. Nevertheless, substantial variations in the charging demand–both per vehicle and aggregated per city–are observed, emphasising the critical importance of energy planning and tailored electrification strategies. This research provides insights for policymakers and planners, and offers a transparent and replicable framework for assessing the impacts of public transport electrification across diverse locations.