Endangered bowhead whales might buffer climate change with individual variability in movement patterns

Abstract

Abstract Assessing the vulnerability of species to global climate change and their capacity for resilience is a central challenge in ecology. Responses are variable and difficult to predict but understanding the resilience of intrinsically vulnerable species is necessary for management of natural populations. Bowhead whales ( Balaena mysticetus ) have recovered from historical over-exploitation in several Arctic regions. However, the East Greenland-Svalbard-Barents Sea (EGSB) population remains endangered, with little known about their habitat use, foraging ecology, or potential resilience. We analysed location data from 38 EGSB bowhead whales instrumented between 2017 and 2021. We performed home range analyses, fitted a modified resource selection function, and estimated move persistence to assess the influence of environmental conditions on movement patterns using linear mixed-effects modelling. EGSB bowheads used an offshore, deep-water core area year-round. Movement patterns showed considerable individual variability and suggest this population is not migratory in a classical sense, likely reducing intraspecific competition. Depth, low sea surface temperatures, and sea ice were all influential on habitat use. Both static and dynamic environmental conditions were significantly associated with apparent foraging behaviour. Although the habitat use of EGSB bowhead whales is vulnerable to continued warming, intrapopulation variability in movements might provide a buffer to climate change.